ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) predictions for the 2026 college football season offer an intriguing glimpse into the potential success of two Big 12 rivals: BYU and Utah. The Cougars and Utes are poised to make waves in the conference and beyond, according to the FPI metrics. Here's a breakdown of what these projections imply and why they matter.
BYU's Rising Prospects
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 places them at No. 20 nationally and second in the Big 12, showcasing their potential to be a force in the conference. The projected wins of 8.7 suggest a strong season, with a 93.1% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The odds of an undefeated season are slim at 1.4%, but the possibility of a Big 12 championship looms at 16.5%. The College Football Playoff (CFP) and national championship aspirations are even more distant, at 25.7% and 2.2%, respectively, with a 0.7% chance of winning the national title. These numbers represent a significant improvement from last year, when BYU was projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the CFP.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is a notable improvement, ranking ninth in the Big 12. This is a stark contrast to the previous season, when BYU was 74th in this category. The upcoming schedule includes a high-profile game against Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, on October 17th. The Cougars will also face their in-state rivals, Utah, who are ranked No. 31 in the FPI, in Salt Lake City on November 7th. These matchups highlight BYU's potential to rise through the ranks and challenge for conference supremacy.
Utah's Resurgent Season
Utah's FPI score of 8.5 places them at No. 31 nationally and third in the Big 12, indicating a strong showing in the conference. The projected wins of 7.7 suggest a competitive season, with a 83.7% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The odds of an undefeated season are a mere 0.4%, but the Utes have a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12, a significant improvement from last year's projections. The CFP and national championship aspirations are at 11.1% and 0.6%, respectively, with a 0.2% chance of winning the national title. These numbers reflect Utah's resurgence after a 5-7 season the previous year, where they exceeded expectations with an 11-2 record and a top 15 ranking.
The Utes' strength of schedule is favorable, ranking 13th in the Big 12. This is a notable improvement from the previous season, when Utah's strength of schedule was sixth-highest in the conference. The absence of a high-ranked Big 12 opponent, such as Texas Tech, in the schedule is a strategic advantage. The toughest non-conference opponent, Arkansas from the SEC, ranked No. 47 in the FPI, will test the Utes' mettle early in the season.
Implications and Takeaways
These FPI projections offer a fascinating insight into the potential dynamics of the Big 12. BYU and Utah are poised to challenge for conference supremacy, with the Cougars having a slight edge in conference odds. The improved strength of schedule for both teams suggests a more competitive environment within the Big 12. The non-conference matchups, particularly against Notre Dame and Arkansas, will play a crucial role in shaping the teams' seasons. As the season unfolds, these rivals will undoubtedly provide an exciting showcase of talent and strategy, leaving fans eager for the outcome.
In my opinion, these FPI predictions highlight the potential for an exciting and competitive Big 12 season. The improved odds for BYU and Utah suggest a more balanced conference, with the potential for surprising outcomes. The non-conference matchups add an extra layer of intrigue, as these teams navigate the challenges of a challenging schedule. As the season progresses, we can expect to see these rivals rise to the occasion, delivering memorable performances that will shape their legacies.
